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Improving a Risk-Rating Scorecard; Developing Prediction Models

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iSixSigma Insights  -  October 15, 2009  -  Vol. 9, #171  -  ISSN: 1530-7603

In This Issue

Improving a Risk-Rating Scorecard; Six Sigma Everywhere

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New Six Sigma Job Openings


Operational Risk Manager
Fannie Mae | US-DC-Washington
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=8297

Director, Operational Excellence-Supply Chain
Cardinal Health | US-Ohio-Dublin
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=10674

Director, Corporate Quality
Aurora Flight Sciences | US-Virginia-Manassas
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=10958

Business Improvement Black Belt
Rolls-Royce North America | US-Texas-Fort Worth
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11371

Lean Enterprise Mgr Multi Site (Operations Focus)
Avery Point Group | US-Nationwide-Various Southeastern Locations
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=9665

Manager of Business Improvement
Cowan International (Canada) | Ghana-Ghana
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11542

Black Belt
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida | US-Florida-Jacksonville
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11541

Manager-Six Sigma Project Strategy
American Express | US-Connecticut-Stamford
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11531

Senior Project Manager-Black Belt
Calpine Corporation | US-Texas-Houston
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11374

Continuous Improvement Engineer
BD | US-North Carolina-Durham
http://jobs.isixsigma.com/apply.asp?ID=11370

Recent Quality Discussions

Developing Prediction Models
We are trying to develop some prediction models for the expected number of software defects to be found in the testing phase based on inputs from the analysis and/or code phases. I've done a multiple regression for many potential predictors and have boiled it down to a few (using VIF and P-values). My model only has two significant terms left, which is fine, and a high R-squared-adjusted (90%), however the 95% prediction interval is very wide, much wider than the confidence interval.

'My question has to do with the relationship between R-sq-adj and prediction intervals. I want to give the testers a range of defects they can expect to find, so that they can manage to it, however, the prediction interval is so wide that it's useless. I thought my R-sq-adj was a reflection of how good my model is (or at least how much error it accounts for). Can anyone offer insight?
http://www.isixsigma.com/forum/showmessage.asp?messageID=159688

Online MBB Courses
I'm a certified Six Sigma Black Belt with 7 years of experience (roughly 4 years of Six Sigma and 3 of Lean) and 5 years experience teaching Green Belts. I just lost my job and I'm considering getting my MBB certification to boost my skill set. I've been looking at several online-only providers. If I obtained this certification, would it be respected in the Six Sigma community? Do you think I could be hired as a MBB? And, most importantly, how good (technically speaking) are these courses?
http://www.isixsigma.com/forum/showmessage.asp?messageID=159659

Transactional Process Capability
I'm working on a project to improve on-time delivery (percent of orders shipped on-time). I would appreciate any insight regarding how to calculate process capability for this transactional process (consider that the distribution is not-normal).
http://www.isixsigma.com/forum/showmessage.asp?messageID=159658

Reducing Lead Time
Ok, I am still a bit confused by Little's Law explaining lead time. For example: Building WIP in the form of supermarkets where single-piece flow is used to reduce lead time (i.e., the elapsed time it takes to move an order through the value stream), right? So can't you actually slow down process velocity (i.e., the elapsed time it takes to move a unit through the value stream) by increasing WIP to speed up lead time?
http://www.isixsigma.com/forum/showmessage.asp?messageID=159657

Improving Vendor Performance
I am trying to initiate a project where we are trying to improve our (outsourced) vendor's performance through overall E2E process improvement in a banking (brokerage) world. I, however, don't know if there are any specific case studies or methodologies you have similar to ACFC or VIP (Vendor Improvement Plan). Any help in this direction is welcome.
http://www.isixsigma.com/forum/showmessage.asp?messageID=159649

The Latest News & Press Releases

MoreSteam.com Announces Release of 'The Blended Learning Playbook'
http://www.isixsigma.com/library/content/n091014a.asp

  • Pittsburgh Glass Works Credits Lean Six Sigma After Successful First Year
  • StatPoint Releases Latest Version of Statgraphics Centurion Data Analysis Software
  • Green Belt Blount Joins U.S. Bank's Private Client Reserve in San Diego
  • Buffalo, N.Y., Businesses Discuss Long-term Success of Six Sigma Principles
  • Central Carolina Community College Chosen to Provide Lean Six Sigma Training
http://www.isixsigma.com/ne/news/

Upcoming Conferences & Training Events

Prepare to earn industry-recognized certifications from Villanova University 100% Online!
http://www.isixsigma.com/r.asp?id=5263

Additional conferences & training events:
  • DFSS for Product Design - Colorado [Nov 9]
  • Six Sigma Overview - Texas [Nov 9]
  • Six Sigma Black Belt - Texas [Nov 9]
  • Designed Experiments (DOE) - Colorado [Nov 9]
  • Six Sigma Green Belt - Incorporating Lean - Melbourne, Australia [Nov 9]
  • Six Sigma LEAN Green Belt - Illinois [Nov 9]
  • Lean & Six Sigma Green Belt Training, in partnership with Lockheed Martin - New Jersey [Nov 9]
  • Understanding CMMI High Maturity Practices (with Six Sigma techniques) - Virginia [Nov 10]
  • Minitab Certified Training - Friedrichsdorf, Germany [Nov 10]
  • Six Sigma Green Belt Training - Chennai, India [Nov 11]
http://www.isixsigma.com/ne/events/

iSixSigma Live! Accepting Nominations for 2010 Awards

Awards season is officially open for the iSixSigma Live! Summit & Awards (Feb. 1-4, Miami). Online submissions are being accepted until November 30th for Lean Six Sigma projects, individuals and companies that excel in the following award categories:

iSixSigma's Six Sigma Hall of Fame: Individuals who have significantly impacted corporate growth and shareholder value through the use of Lean Six Sigma.

Largest-Breakthrough Improvement Projects: Lean Six Sigma projects with the largest "breakthrough" results in four categories - supply chain, transactional, manufacturing and customer service.

Most Successful Lean Six Sigma Start-up or Re-energized Lean Six Sigma Program: The most successful start-up or the most invigorating re-energized deployment.

iSixSigma MVP Awards: Individuals who make outstanding voluntary contributions to the Six Sigma community through the iSixSigma Discussion Forum, Blogosphere and Twitter.

For more information on award categories and entry requirements, visit: http://live.isixsigma.com/awards.

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