# Statman

## Activity

• As long as we are quoting Dr. Deming, how about this one from Out of the Crisis:

“…American management have resorted to mass assemblies for crash courses in statistical methods, employing hacks for teachers, being unable to discriminate between competence and ignorance.  The result is that hundreds of people are learning what is wrong.  No o…[Read more]

• Reigle,

Do you understand the difference between alpha risk and beta risk?  Do you know how the power of a test is defined?  How about an error of type I vs. an error of type II?

Maybe you have not been trained in the concept that there is a difference between Reject-Support significance tests and Accept-Support significance test…[Read more]

• Reigle,

Let me get this straight.  An engineer has just finished configuring a certain assembly.  He has already determined the specifications on each of the 5 components without the determination of the requirements on the CTQ (which is the gap between the 4 parts and the envelope).  The process is already spec’ed and up and running with…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic Dr. Montgomery in the forum General 18 years, 6 months ago

Book ain’t sellin is it?
Reigle,
I have been very busy this week and haven’t nor have I time to respond to your assertations about my claims in full I will try to get back to you this week end.
Mean time, I think that you need to go back and re-read my poistion.  I stated them very clearly in 5 points and a proof in at least two posts.  Pl…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic Tests for Outliers in the forum General 18 years, 6 months ago

Stan,
Minitab will identify outliers on a Box Plot using the following rules:
“A line is drawn across the box at the median. By default, the bottom of the box is at the first quartile (Q1), and the top is at the third quartile (Q3) value. The whiskers are the lines that extend from the top and bottom of the box to the adjacent values. The…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Hi Darth,

I am responding to your post so that the title of this string will show up again today – Just kiddingJ.

I am working on a theory about the ratio of long term to short term variation of a process and the number for the difference short to long (0.83 sigma) that you said you have observed in your process actually fits a hy…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

I will ask isixsigma to remove this and any other future business promotions.

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Praveen,
you said:
“Another scenario, if everyone uses a different level of shift, and every one would be calling their processes as six sigma. Now, there could be a race, hey, my six sigma is better than yours because of smaller shift!”
That is just flat silly.
The size of shift is not of critical importance.  what is important is that the…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

What do you think?
Do I sound like I am insecure?
I certainly haven’t spent the last 20 years of my life trying to justify a miscalculation … nor would I.

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Yes Gabriel,
“However, this is as trivial as saying that a number can be expressed as the sum of other two numbers. The question is wether there exist ONE S.shift or not, because we don’t need Dr Harry to tell us that there always exists some number S.shift such as S.lt = S.st + S.shift. This number just happen to be S.lt – S.st.”

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Ah….That’s what I just said….

At least I can spell algebra

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Never heard of him.
But tell him Hi for me and I look forward to meeting him.  I did visit his   —- website which I had also never heard of.  Tell him that he looked like a deer caught in the headlights on his CNBC appearance.  I guess he is not use to being on tv.
I hope that you will have more than just gear heads – Mech-Es –  at this d…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

No you told me that k = 1 – (1/c)  then you multiplied Z.st by (1-K)
I told you that 1-K = 1/c and that you have done the same calculations that I have done to get the correct answer:
Z.lt = Z.st/c
and now we are in agreement that the formula
Z.lt = Z.st – Z.shift   is BS
We have declared this string dead until after the debate.  But if yo…[Read more]

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

Reigle,

I said I was done commenting on this string but this one I can’t resist.

First of all, Stan is right and now you agree with him.  Any sustained shift of 1.5 sigma will be detected quite rapidly with a common Shewhart control chart with n= 4.  Using the 8 Nelson/Western Electric rules, the shift will be detected in fewer than…[Read more]

• Thank you Dave.
Statman

• John,

I hope that your comments about statistical thinking are in jest.  Equating statistical thinking to muddled thinking is the reason the “popular press” can get away with the gross misstatements about our world.  Many things can go wrong if we can not think statistically.  Just as a writer can arrange words into convincing arguments or in…[Read more]

• You said:

“Your in-depth knowledge of operations will definitely compensate for your lack of experience or expertise with statistics. “  (Emphases mine)

So I would guess that you feel statistical thinking plays no role in understanding the dynamics of business and operations provided you can compensate with other “in-depth knowl…[Read more]

• I’m sorry, but which MBA courses provide “indepth knowledge of operations”?
How does one achieve this “indepth knowledge of operations” without an ability to think statistically about operations?

• You have confused statisical methods with statistical thinking.
Sad that some have only grasped the nuts and bolts about statistics and have not made the connection between statistical thinking and a “comprehensive understanding of the business dynamics”
After all the teachings of Deming, Juran, Crosby etc.

• Statman replied to the topic 1.5 SHIFT SIMULATION in the forum General 18 years, 7 months ago

I’m glad to hear that the expenses will be taken care of.  I don’t think that my parents would have paid for the trip.  I just hope that they let me skip school on those days if it is before June.

Statman