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Age counting

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  • #38592

    BBC
    Participant

    Hello ,
    I’m BBC in one company which produce the lens , I got the project to reduce Obsolescence lens in the iventory , because our product have only 2 yr. otherwise we have to scrap them .
    After brainstroming from my team we found 2 x’s that very huge , there are FIFO and Forecast accuracy .
    By under the short period of project , we will focus only FIFO improvement .
    But I found the problem to count the age of the product regarding to several kind of age
    How to identified their age can I use median or what ?
     
    Thank for your help
     

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    #115604

    the_amatuer
    Member

    Look at the distribution of the age…..
    It might be possible that the data might not be normal, so its preferred to use Median,
    However, if the age comes in normal distribution, then it shud’nt matter what you are using as mean=median=mode for a normal distribution.
    Hope this answers your question.
     

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    #115619

    Bob J
    Participant

    BBC,
    Focusing on forecasting is BS…  Any forecasting tool is wrong and the error is a function of time… 
    Order fulfillment time is what is critical….  Map your process and work with your vendors to take out the muda and improve flow…  Reduce your inventory accordingly…
    You’ll get a lot more actual results in far less time…
    My 2/c
    Bob J
     

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    #115643

    Dale
    Participant

    Assuming the 2 years is a firm point, then you have two categories – defective or good.  (If not, you could switch to continuous data using the age of the product.  Better analysis as you drive further process improvement.)  That means you have to categorize every single lens in inventory into one or the other.  No using mean, median, or any other summarization of the data points.  (Remember the old economist joke.  Three economists are shooting skeet.  The first shoots and misses by 10′ to the right.  The second steps up and shoots and misses by 10′ to the left.  They all throw down their guns and high five each other.  “On average we nailed them!”)
    I think your approach will improve your process, but not optimize it.  To drive optimization you will need to look at your demand analysis – takt time, cycle time, lead time, completion time, etc.

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    #116033

    BBC
    Participant

    Than you very much for all answer .
     

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