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Difference Between Effort Estimation prediction

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  • #26676

    Dubey
    Member

    Hi All,
    Can anybody tell me wat is the difference between effort Estimation & prediction If I have a effort estimation Model then Do I require the prediction Model for the same?
     

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    #64809

    Anjali Mogre
    Participant

    Hi
    The effort estimation and effort prediction models are used at different times is SDLC. The Effort estimation models are typically used when you are preparing for a response to the proposal. The efforts are estimated based on the requirements provided by the customer.
    The effort prediction models are used while you are in different stages of the SDLC. For example, at the end of the requirement phase the effort prediction model should tell you whether you will be able to complete the project in stipulated effort or not. The effort prediction model may have paramaters such as work accomplished, scope creep, team skills available etc.
    Both these models alothough tries to calculate effort but the parematers based on which the efforts are calculated are different.
    Thanks ..
    Anjali

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    #64819

    Manish Gupta
    Participant

    Hi,
    Could  you please give me the example of both effort estimation and prediction models.

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    #64820

    Manish Gupta
    Participant

    Hi,
    Could  you please give me the example of both effort estimation and prediction models.

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    #64821

    Anjali Mogre
    Participant

    For example, effort estimation model could be based on Function point estimation method or organization wide complexity based on size estimation. For a new proposal, the effort estimation will be done by the size of the project in terms of function point multiplied by productivity factor (# Hours per function point).
    The effort prediction model may be based of the historical data of effort distribution of the project in various phases of SDLC. Depending on the effort spent on requirement phase, based on the effort estimation model, one will be able to predict wheather the project will be completed in the budgeted effort. If the prediction model tells the project manager that the project will not be completed in the budgeted effort then the project manager is expected to take corrective action in subsequent phases of SDLC so that the project will be completed in the stipulated effort.
     

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    #65127

    Priyanku Nandi
    Participant

    Hi Anjali,
                  Firstly I would introduce myself to you. My name is Priyanku (Quality Expert) and am working in Amdocs (IT).
    I am leading my organization in a CMMI journey (Level 4 and level 5).
    Would i be correct in saying that Estimation models are the inputs to prediction models.
    The type of work we are dealing in is Managed services or production support type. We do not have function points.Can you advice me in lay man language then how to better define estimation and prediction.
    I am a green belt certified and would be obliged for your inputs.
    Regards
    Priyanku
    9923303452

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    #65129

    sumant
    Member

    Hi Priyanku,
    Though the output of the estimation and prediction is more or less same, both are different tools. While estimation models used at the start of the projects, prediction models are used to predict for the next phases based on the completed phases of life cycle. Basically for in-process prediction, prediction models are being used.
    Ex: Estmation for the whole enhancement might be 200 hrs based on FP, LOC etc. But if the enhancement has four life cycle phases e.g. Req, Des, Cod, Test etc, then based on the Requirement phase effort variation, prediction model can be used to predict for the future phases as well as overall variance. so based on that you can take some corrective action. Hope This helps.
    Sumant

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