Normality test and robustness
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Remi.
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October 29, 2009 at 5:56 am #24131
Hello;I am using crystal ball for finding one of the forecast is normal or not. After analyzing that forecast it is saying normality test failed. I am interested in knowing forecast robustness. So my question is can we take Mean and Standard deviation for finding its robustness.Thanks
Ajay0November 23, 2009 at 9:56 am #57781Hai Ajay,
there is no reason that a forecast should be normal distributed. And analysing a forcast on its own makes no sense to me. Why would you want to do that?For Forecast Robustness: look at Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval that you get from the regression analysis. They give you info about robustness.
The general answer is always: the further your forecast is away of your datapoints the more incertainty you will have. And of course the main assumption is that your model of the past (data) is a good prediction of what will happen in the future (that is why it doesn’t work on stocks).
Remi0 -
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