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Normality test and robustness

Six Sigma – iSixSigma Forums Old Forums Europe Normality test and robustness

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  • #24131

    Yadav
    Participant

    Hello;I am using crystal ball for finding one of the forecast is normal or not. After analyzing that forecast it is saying normality test failed. I am interested in knowing forecast robustness. So my question is can we take Mean and Standard deviation for finding its robustness.Thanks
    Ajay

    0
    #57781

    Remi
    Participant

    Hai Ajay,
    there is no reason that a forecast should be normal distributed. And analysing a forcast on its own makes no sense to me. Why would you want to do that?For Forecast Robustness: look at Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval that you get from the regression analysis. They give you info about robustness.
    The general answer is always: the further your forecast is away of your datapoints the more incertainty you will have. And of course the main assumption is that your model of the past (data) is a good prediction of what will happen in the future (that is why it doesn’t work on stocks).
    Remi

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