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  • #52659

    Hosking
    Participant

    Do opportunities have to be independent?
    How can I confirm opportunities are independent? What might be the consequences for getting it wrong?

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    #185496

    Mikel
    Member

    Tell us what you think an opportunity is and give an example of
    dependent ones – you’ll get a much more intelligent response (just
    look out for that Darth guy).

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    #185500

    Hosking
    Participant

    Stan, We assemble cables and one of our processes has to trim a multicore cable to meet several inspection criteria. The outer sleeve has to be removed a certain distance from the end, the cut should penetrate any of the sleeves of the inner cables, and the outer sleeve has to be removed cleanly without any jagged edge (not cut all the way around.)My question is can I assume for a six core cable there are eight opportunties? Six for cutting any one of the inner core cables, one for the length of the unsleeved part of the cable, and one for cutting all the way around?By the way, my boss says there is only one way to make a cable correctly even though there are several multicore cables, flying leads and miniature co-axes in a typical cable.Thanks,
    Jill

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    #185503

    Mikel
    Member

    The opportunities are the number of value added operations that must
    be performed to make the cable right.Inspection criteria has nothing to do with it. A singe opportunity can
    fail in multiple ways and that does not create more opportunities.

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    #185507

    Hosking
    Participant

    Stan,My interpretation is there are 10 value added steps. In the simple example I mentioned these are:Cut the cable assembly to the right length1. Set up cutter to the right overall length
    2. Cut the outer sleeve
    3. Cut the red wire
    4. cut the white wire
    5. cut the yellow wire
    6. cut the black wire
    7. cut the blue wireTrim the outer sleeve8. Set up the cutter
    9. cut the outer sleeve
    10.Pull the sleeve offDo you believe the first 7 steps are independent?Jill

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    #185509

    Mikel
    Member

    Set up is never value added, but other than that I agree and they are
    independent.

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    #185511

    Hosking
    Participant

    Thanks for hte help Stan -I wish suppliers would report DPMO as a ratio, for example as 0.0001/20 to indicate they assumed 20 opportunties (value added steps).Jill

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    #185512

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Jill,
    This may be some out of the box thinking but you could ask them how they calculated it. It might make sense just from the standpoint of making sure they don’t change it. This is a numerator game not a denominator game.
    Just my opinion

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    #185514

    Hosking
    Participant

    I did not want to bring this up Mike because Stan has been really helpful, but this is what I suspect our supplier does. They use a large denominator to reduce the DPMO without addressing the assignable causes. I receive poor quality on a regular basis but their data tells a different story. To be honest, my boss has had enough and is encouraging me to think about finding an alernative supplier.Jill

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    #185519

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Jill,
    A guy you see on here from time to time named Gary Cone, he and I worked for a guy who would take guys like that aside and tell them “look at me as your priest. You can confess your sins or I will read you your last rites.”
    It is business. Don’t waste a nano second on a supplier that is lieing to you.
    Just my opinion.

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    #185520

    Don Strayer
    Participant

    Jill
    This speaks to the major “gotcha” with DPMO.Β  If the ratio between opportunities and maximum defects is other than 1:1, DPMO will be skewed.Β  For instance ifΒ  2 different defects could result from the same operation but you only count 1 opportunity, you could get 2:1.Β  And if there are 2 opportunities for the same defect you get 1:2 if the defect is actually for present.Β  I always ask myself a deceptively simple question:Β  If every potential defect I’ve identified was actually present, would the total defect count exactly equal the opportunities?Β  If not, then I either need to work on my definitions and causal relationships or express DPMO with a margin of error.

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    #185521

    Mikel
    Member

    Nonsense

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    #185523

    Dieter
    Participant

    I agree Don .. reporting good DPMO with little real improvement probably destroyed the US’s manufacturing base, which is why our company will have nothing to do with the SS.

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    #185524

    Hosking
    Participant

    Stan,My boss told me this morning we cannot assume statistical independence. He used the example of three dice of different colours to explain his concept. He said that if we observe too many sixes occuring on all colours at around the same timeframe, we cannot assume the dice are statistically independent, likewise for the cables. When I asked him what mechanism would cause this dependency on dice he said gravity????With regard to the multicore cables, it is certainly true that when there are high incidences of one of the multi-core cable’s insultator being cut, then the others have a high frequency of occuring as well, but I always put this down to setup error in the past.Thanks,Jill

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    #185526

    Mikel
    Member

    Very informed and excellent conclusion.Do your homework Dieter, the flight of manufacturing from the US
    preceded Six Sigma, it’s about labor costs and the inability of
    management to improve their processes. It is also often a false
    economy. Either that or companies like Toyota and Honda are idiots.
    They bring manufacturing to the US.

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    #185527

    Mikel
    Member

    Your boss needs to understand what an opportunity is.Does preparing one wire cause the other wires to be prepared? His
    argument can be extended to cables. More than likely, when
    several insulators are cut on one cable, it also happens on the
    next, and the next, and the next…. So maybe the opportunity count on each lot of cables is only one?
    No, it is the number of value add operations that must be done to
    properly prepare a cable. The set up does not count because the
    cable doesn’t change just because you set up. all of the other
    operations you described cause the cable to be altered toward the
    desired state.Just because the guy is your boss doesn’t mean he knows what he
    is talking about. This is a life lesson, you may need to do what he
    says, but don’t act that way when you become the boss. Your company needs a written definition of an opportunity to avoid
    this. The boss’s cute example of dice throwing will not pass the
    sniff test when put in black and white.

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    #185531

    Hosking
    Participant

    I think my boss equates opportunities to the total number of possible outcomes as one would do to calculate probabilities and not the number of value added steps.No problem with the boss though – I don’t have to take his advice, only the responsibility :-)Thanks,Jill

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    #185537

    Dieter
    Participant

    I think you must do some homework Stan. I mean you forgot to count all the fibres in the wires for your opportunties. If you can count all 15 wire fibres in each wire you must be having at least 76 opportunities.Don’t forget also you must cut both the insulator and the wires, making now 81 opporunities, Ha, Ha, what a joker you are – Six Sigma can really help companies improve and save money!

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    #185538

    Kluttz
    Member

    Dieter, I totally agree.
    The insidious effect of Six Sigma is so profound that US manufacturing started a slow steady decline in the early 1950’s – a full thirty years before the advent of Six Sigma!Β  Wow!Β  Just the premonition of data-based decision-making sent manufacturing into a decades-long death spiral (though it doesn’t quite explain the growth of US manufacturing PRODUCTIVITY since the early 1980’s).
    PS – it might help to read this in a mental voice dripping with sarcasm and condescension.

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    #185539

    Mikel
    Member

    Hey Diet boy,I have done my homework, Tell us, oh wise one, what do you recommend as an improvement
    strategy?

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    #185540

    Robert S
    Member

    Dieter, can games be played with Opportunities? Of course. So what? That does not follow a logic trail to SS being useless.
    Games can be played with nearly everything. The issue is does your improvement approach provide means of making improvements when implemented correctly? With SS the answer is an absolute Yes!

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    #185551

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Jill,
    Opportunities are the number of opportunities to do something correctly. Your boss is making something very simple into a MENSA question.
    If you don’t have to comply do the right thing. If you have to do what he says then do what you have to do to survive and move on. We have all had to walk around these guys all our lives.
    Just my opinion.

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    #185552

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    Stand did his homework years ago and knows what he is talking about. You on the other hand seem to have an issue with comprehension. Your stupid example of stands of wire fits the other guys description of an opportunity which Stan said was nonsense.
    Since you have trouple managing to keep track of who said what in a simple string of posts then it explains a lot on you linking manufacturing leaving the US to Six Sigma. Instead of some glittering generality how about putting up some data that links the two events. Not correlation but cause.

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    #185559

    Dieter
    Participant

    Hey Stumpy-boy,What do you call SS – 1.5?What do you call SS – DPMO?Why it is just TQM of course!What is TQM?If you focus on Quality you improve quality. If you focus on Process you improve process. If you focus in Production you improve production!

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    #185560

    Dieter
    Participant

    OK – why don’t you tell everyone how to count DPMO for one dice with one spot on the face of the six unpainted (Missing)

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    #185561

    Szentannai
    Member

    Hi Jill,
    reading through the thread I got the impression that the original question was to judge the performance of a supplier. Is this right?In this case you could consider a simpler measurement: each delivered cable is one opportunity, either it passes or fails. DPMO would be the number of delivered cables in a week say, that have a defect, divided by the total number of delivered cables. It would definitely eliminate the problem of the suppliers inflating the number of opportunities. From the customer’s (your) POV it doesn’t really matter which of the numerous opportunities caused the defect if you can not use the part, does it?Regards
    Sandor

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    #185564

    Mikel
    Member

    If you will explain what is value add about the die (no such thing as one dice), I’ll answer the question.

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    #185567

    Hosking
    Participant

    Hi Sandor,Yes, my supervisor gave me the same advice. I found out this morning our supplier do not perform any final electrical test, so we’re thinking about either installing our own equipment in their factory or changing our supplier to someone who will give us 10 free harnesses for every one we receive defective.Jill

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    #185568

    Szentannai
    Member

    Hi Jill,
    I think that makes sense. I would still keep the DPMO measurement however because that would be a way to monitor the performance of the supplier and eventually to compare different suppliers even if their processes and/or delivered quantities differ. Regards
    Sandor

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    #185571

    Saherngu
    Participant

    Stan,
    Your question relates to the difference between defective and defects.Β  Within each process, each opportunity to create an error is a defect.Β  If your process has 8 distinct opportunities to create an error, then any error within that process would be a defect.Β  If making that defect renders the part unusable, then the part would be defective.Β  You are correct that there are 8 defect opportunities.Β  Your boss is referencing the fact that any error makes the entire product defective.

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    #185573

    Dieter
    Participant

    Do you mean the cycle time value add or the value add a person obtains by using it to play a board game?

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    #185574

    Dieter
    Participant

    Mike,I am not the only one with these doubts. Are these people also stupid.http://www.industryweek.com/articles/how_to_improve_your_business_without_really_trying_15445.aspxMaybe not asking these questions and thinking about ‘stupid’ examples, such as the die (thanks Stan) it is even more stupid … Ha, Ha, Ha.Dieter

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    #185576

    Lee
    Participant

    You said “… or changing our supplier to someone who will give us 10 free harnesses for every one we receive defective.”Β  Once I had a similar delima, so in contract negotiations we got the manufacturer to be boasting about how defect free his product was.Β  Then, we reinforced their stance byΒ saying that they could offer to increase their warranty to be 5x the product price, because it would make us feel more comfortable about our risk but have no financial impact on them because of their superior product.Β  That got some realistic discussion of defect probability going (the sales retoric was dropped), and we ended up with a 1.25x multiplier ….
    Look to see if the defective cables have a warranty of any sort, express or implied, and then make claims on that warranty.Β  That will likely spur a more realstic discussion of the defect rate ….

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    #185578

    Mikel
    Member

    YesAre you in high school?

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    #185579

    Kluttz
    Member

    Dieter,
    Do you realize that the author of that particular article is a consultant from a company that peddles an alternative to Six Sigma?Β  Thats like me posting an article written by Dave Thomas thatΒ said that Whoppers taste bad.Β  And if I did post something like that, I would imagine that people might think I was ignorant.Β 
    Qualpro sells MVT, which is also a tool that fits nicely within the Lean Six Sigma framework.Β  So tell me – if the only tool they sell is MVT, then what do you think their solution would be for any particular business problem would be?Β  I’ll give you a hint – it rhymes with “emmmveeeteee”.Β  But MVT isn’t always the answer.Β  Neither is Six Sigma.Β  Neither is Kaizen or TQM.Β  Which is why we should be experienced and knowledgeable of all concepts and methodologies so we can use the right approach the a specific problem.Β 

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    #185581

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    Since my last post with my honest feelings about engaging you was removed you will get a more text book type answer. If you want to get honest you can email me at [email protected]Β and we can make arrangements to do this off line.
    This little “I hate Six Sigma” or “I hate Lean” or whatever, is definately a sign of lack of mental capacity. I wish I could remember who I heard make this comment so I could give them credit for it but they likened it to someone opening a tool box and saying “I hate screwdrivers.”Β 
    To answer your question (that is for the Moderator – the guy asked) do I believe these people are stupid? Yes I do. I believe it takesΒ either a lack of mental capacityΒ or a hidden agenda to write something like that. It is a step below that to read something likeΒ your linkΒ and choose to put it up on a site like this and,Β first toΒ think we had not seen it when it was published andΒ second to think if we did see it that that little bit of drivel would cause anyone here toΒ think “That was an epiphany, a significant social event, I am loading all my Six Sigma worldly posetions in my car and donating them and devoting my life to Qualpro and MVT.” UCS explained the hidden agenda as well as anyone.
    Now where is the justification for that remark you made about SS driving manufacturing out of the US. You are ducking and diving from issue to issue because you can’t justify the comment. Make your case. You threw it out here back it up or go away.

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    #185587

    Dieter
    Participant

    NoOK, the die costs 99c. To save time, here are some answer to the question what is the DPMO for a single die with two dots from the six missing.Some SS people say there is one opportunity to make the die correctly so the dpmo = 1 (1 defect per 1 opportunity. Other ss people say there are six faces to make the die correctly, so the dpmo = 2/6 = 1/3Even other ss people say there are six faces, six numbers, 21 dots so the dpmo = (2/33)What is your answer? (I think it is reasonable for you to answer since you already told someone they did not know how to count opporunities.)

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    #185588

    Dieter
    Participant

    I agree with you I’m just trying to point out that there are too many interpretations of DPMO. If some people think DPMO is Standard they are much mistaken.For Stan I admire his strength, if I can convince one strong man with intellectual integrity there is a problem with the SS standard then manybe I can improve things. If all people just accept this dpmo nonesense then all are guilty!

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    #185589

    Dieter
    Participant

    I only posted the link to show you I’m not the only person that has concerns about SS. If you are as well read as you would like us to believe then you will know them all which means you have little intellectual integrity in trying to make out I am the only one with these concerns.

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    #185593

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    Let me help you out since you don’t seem to link concepts together readily. This is a Discussion Forum about Six Sigma. Most things controversial are posted here and discussed to death your link being one of them. That is the point of the Forum.
    As far as making you out to be something. You are the one that chose to show up and drop your pants. This mess was your choosing and you are propogating it daily.

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    #185606

    Dieter
    Participant

    The point you missed is each strand of wire is a value add step so while Stan can tell Jill their boss is wrong and make assumptions about her boss’ management style, you say nothing. Also, it is common knowledge SS is in decline, so it is clear it must be reworked and revitalized. I’m doing this forum a service by pointing out the SS standard is flawed because every man has accepted the current status.Why you describe this as dropping your pants is between you and the deep blue sea – we’re very relaxed about such things where I come from.

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    #185619

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    Answer the question. Justify the comment about six sigma causing manufacturing to leave the US. You made the comment, get called on it and are now afraid to backup the comment.
    You

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    #185620

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    The point I haven’t missed is that you are dodging the question about backing up your comment about SS and business leaving the US. Your refusal to answer the question about you justifying that comment. Why won’t you answer it? You have no credibility at this point.

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    #185623

    fiftysix
    Participant

    The only one missing the boat here is David Cochran, the article writer.

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    #185626

    Dieter
    Participant

    I think that is really funny – what question haven’t you dodged Ha, Ha, Ha!Ok, I will answer your question directly but only in stages. If you agree I will continue if not I stop. First, I hope you can agree DPMO is a SS standard and the standard is (3.4 ppm) Do you agree? Yes/No

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    #185628

    Kluttz
    Member

    You’ll answer the question in stages?Β  Really?
    Let me save you the time…
    US manufacturing hit its peak during WWII and began a consistent & steady decline in the early 1950’s.Β  The origins of Six Sigma as you’re defining itΒ began in the early ’80’s.Β  Manufacturing didn’t decline at a greater rate after SS’s advent at Motorola.Β  On the contrary, US productivity began to increase around the same time (note – correlation doesn’t equal causation).Β 
    So it would be fairly pointless to try to back up your assertion that Six Sigma caused a decline in US manufacturing, because its demonstrably untrue.Β  See, in Six Sigma,Β  they teach us to make data-based decisions before taking action (or making statements).Β 
    But hey, you might be right.Β  Maybe your methodology is better.Β  Care to compare your history of driving process improvements to mine?

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    #185636

    GB
    Participant

    Dieter,
    It is quite painfully obvious to all that you are way out of your depth here. You vomited out an unsubstantiated claim and now are too embarrassed to back your own play.It’s a pride thing…we get it. So either back your claim, or fess up that you have no supporting data and your online vomitus was nothing more than your own personal opinion.As others have stated, you have zero standing and sub zero credibility at this point.Put up or shut up.

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    #185639

    Robert S
    Member

    Or go to lean.org and tell them Lean is garbage. See how that works outΒ for you.

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    #185641

    Taylor
    Participant

    Geez I hate to see good people get sucked into debates like this.Β  I am amazed that someone can make such a statement and so many of us run to try and justify Six Sigma, when really the statement was so far out of reality it does not even warrant a response. I mean I could say Labor Unions have drove out Manufacturing, I could say Obama is driving out Manufacturing, I could say the Mexicans are driving our Manufacturing. Just hilarious.
    Dieter, I was once told: “It is better to have everyone think your an idiot, than to open your mouth and prove it.”Β  Yes, there are some serious haters of Six Sigma in this world and some of them even write articles and push back and create some “Evil” cult out of it, but fact of the matter is, Six Sigma is a great way to improve process control, reduce variation, and improve throughput in any business. It is not the end all be all fix and anyone who takes on any improvement project must have an intimate understanding of the process,Β  that is what makes your DPMO argument so lame.
    Β 

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    #185645

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Dieter,
    You did your original post on the 18th and were asked to justify it on the 19th and still have not done it. Answer the question or get lost.

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    #185648

    Craig
    Participant

    Mike,
    You owe me an email or two. How many opportunities do you need?
    :-)
    HACLΒ Β 

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    #185650

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    Actually it is probably more than a couple. Maybe we can have Deiter help us with the opportunity count.
    Has your email changed?
    Regards

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    #185652

    Dieter
    Participant

    Here is some data for you: 1.4 dpmo, 360 dpmo, 1205 dpmo. What does it mean? it can mean anything you like.

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    #185653

    Dieter
    Participant

    I give you a link and you start crying. Why not be a man like Stan and try to answer the question. If a die has six faces, six numbers, and twenty one dots, with two dots defective on the six, what is the number of opportunities and what is the dpo?Be a man, step up to the plate and answer the question. Just because you don’t like the author of the link I mentioned does not mean it is not relevant. Many people believe SS is too slow – maybe the reason is because the standard is unreliable.From now I will ignore the posts of your lackeys and only read yours, I will not go away until you answer the question. In the words of a famous hollywood actor – I’ll be back!

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    #185677

    JC
    Participant

    I’m new to all this, but it seems to me that one must define what the opportunity is before one can determine the dpo. Is this a true statement with regard to Six Sigma? To beat all to the chase, I’m ignorant, an idiot, whatever, but I’d really like to know.JC

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    #185678

    Robert S
    Member

    Yes, JC, you are correct. That said, it doesn’t matter. dpo isn’t relevant.
    What’s relevant is a problem, finding the root cause and eliminating it. That’s the essense of SS. dpo, dpmo, sigma value et al is a waste of time.
    FIX STUFF!!

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    #185680

    Mike Carnell
    Participant

    JC,
    If you want to calculate dpo you would have to define an opportunity. The metric we prefer to use at the project level is dpu. It is an easier metric for most of the people you work with to understand, removes a lot of wasted time on pontification, and the numbers are pretty clear – how many defects did I have and how many did I build. That is a project level metric.
    We are all ignorant at some level. That isn’t an issue and doesn’t make you or anyone else an idiot. People become idiots when they revel in their ignorance.
    Just my opinion

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    #185681

    Mikel
    Member

    Wrong. DPO or DPMO can be valuable to leaders, just doesn’t mean
    squat to a one off project.

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    #185684

    Robert S
    Member

    Well then you’re arguing for the opposition Stan. If there is no succinct means of defining opportunities then any use of a metric based on that is meaningless; or, at best, manipulative.

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    #185686

    JC
    Participant

    It would seem then that opportunities are relative. In the case of the die mentioned earlier in this thread, an opportunity could based on the creation of a perfect die-one opportunity, or it could be based on placing the dots correctly-21 opportunities. Without knowing what an opportunity actually is, there can be no measurement. I guess it just depends on the specific process. I must be overthinking this. I got caught up in the esoterica of some of the earlier posts I think.Thanks,JC

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    #185687

    Robert S
    Member

    Well, JC, we’ll just have to wait for Stan to clarify it all. He has pronounced me “Wrong” so I’m sure in the interest ofΒ everyone hereΒ he will explain it to us. I can’t wait.

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    #185688

    Craig
    Participant

    Mike,
    Same email account.Β  I think you had 2 defects. (emails that you didn’t respond to)Β 
    You could count all junkmail items that you could have fowarded to me as additional opportunities I suppose.
    Planning the May fishing trip already my friend!
    HACL

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    #185689

    Mikel
    Member

    No I am arguing that you don’t know what the @#$% you are talking
    about. DPO or DPMO as a means of comparison to learn is invaluable. Nothing more but also nothing less.

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    #185690

    Robert S
    Member

    No surprise that when someone disagrees with you you attack them personally rather than defend your argument… you’re not a whole lot different than Dieter in that regard.
    “Defects per” is fine as a concept to discuss for learning purposes. However, it has no practicality as a metric to track beyond having specific, consistentΒ definitions for a particular process.
    Wow, I espressed my opinion and didn’t even call you any names… what a concept.

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    #185691

    Jimmy Dean
    Participant

    Can’t believe this goofy discussion.Β  Who really cares?Β  Seems very simple to me.Β  If you establish some set of criteria thatΒ constitutes a “defect,” then simply count the number of “potential” occurences.Β  This means that each “occurence” is an opportunity for defect.Β 
    If you don’tΒ define defect criteria and don’t formally inspect for such a defect, then it really don’t matterΒ because there is no chance of creating such a defect even though the defect might really be there (in theory), but since nobody is looking for such a defect (including the customer), how would it be possible that an “opportunity” for such a defect could even exist?
    To me this all sounds like a “who’s on first base” kind of discussion or “how many atoms can fit on a pin head.”Β  If the concept of defect opportunites helps you teach some basic concepts, then have at it.Β  If it don’t make sense, then don’t teach it or use it.Β  Some like it, others don’t.Β  So what else is new.Β  Some like corn flakes, others don’t.
    I have read that Motorola used DPMO as a reportable metric.Β  If it made sense to them in running their businesses, then there is probably some merit to the concept.Β  I hear more evidence to support its use than the other way around.
    Bottom line is Blah, Blah, Blah.Β  Just a lot of hot air from so-called experts on this forum who nobody ever heard of other than people on this forum.Β  I’m just a “nobody” in the world of business and don’t try to convince anyone otherwise.Β  My kids call me stupid, my wife says I’m a freek (or maybe thats “geek”) and my boss says I might get a raise next year.Β  I do a few BB projects each year, save my company some coin and keep my job.
    So go ahead and say that my opinion is wrong or somehow flawed, I don’t really care.Β  Just recognize that many of your “expert” responses often sound very stupid as well.
    Jimmy Dean Sausages

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    #185692

    Robert S
    Member

    That was great Jimmy. Seriously, great!

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    #185696

    Dieter
    Participant

    At it again are you bully boy Stan, try reading some other SS websites

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    #185697

    Dieter
    Participant

    JC:No question or comment is ignorant, stupid or idiotic.Dieter

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    #185698

    Dieter
    Participant

    Jimmy Dean:You are correct even though there are two potential problems with what you are writing.First of all there are many views in the SS world. You can check out the ASQ forum for their interpretation.Second, Stan already indicated opportunities do not equate to occurences which is a view of those who do not interpret defects statistically.If you interpret defects statistically then you are in good company and you are able to take your argment to the next level and answer the problem about the die.Think back to your probability theory. What approach did you take to check to see if outcomes are independent. I won’t spoil it for you by giving you the answer as you will enjoy the solution better to solve it for yourself.I am now in a position to challenge you to explain the dpo for the die problem :-)

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    #185701

    Mikel
    Member

    Sorry parrot-boy Dieter, I don’t get my opinion from other people.
    I get mine from experience. You should try the same.I know where DPO and DPMO is useful and I use it that way.I don’t think it should be anything beyond a point of information in
    a BB class and I don’t think the DPO exercise should even be
    undertaken unless management knows how and why and is going
    to use it.The same for the 4.5 vs 6 sigma nonsense. The reason any
    discussion around this type of thing is useful is for people to know
    that process do move around and they should account for that with
    real data about their processes. The 1.5 difference? – it is only a
    conservative estimate to use in the absence of, and only until your
    have, real data.Now how about let’s talk about something useful. For example,
    what have you found that is better?

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    #185702

    Mikel
    Member

    Dieter, Not true. You should read the posts from this guy named Dieter.

    0
    #185703

    Mikel
    Member

    The die problem is stupid. There is no value add to rolling a die, so
    there are no opportunities.Let’s talk about something real.

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    #185704

    Mikel
    Member

    Wrong.BTW – your sausages stink, go back to being a dead actor.

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    #185705

    mcintosh
    Participant

    Dieter,This is quite an interesting probability problem. Thanks!Regards,
    Tom

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    #185710

    JC
    Participant

    Jimmy Dean,Not really part of the discussion, but I added to your paragraph {within}. You just described my world in a nutshell. I’m just a “nobody” in the world of business and don’t try to convince anyone otherwise. My kids call me stupid, my wife says I’m a freek (or maybe that’s “geek”) {my ex wife hates me except on payday}, and my boss says I might get a raise next year. I do a few {improvement} projects each year {new to SS}, save my company some coin and keep my job.

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    #185715

    Robert S
    Member

    Well, for the 2nd time in about 3 yrs Stan & I agree. Dieter, have you ever watched “Jaywalking” on Leno? There are plenty of ignorant, stupid or idiotic comments.
    But then, if they make sense to you… that says something doesn’t it?

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    #185734

    newbie
    Participant

    Dieter,
    For the last time, I don’t want to touch your monkey……now is the time in the program when we dance……

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    #185747

    Mikel
    Member

    Do you want to understand why it was done in the beginning and
    where it still makes sense?

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