Poisson Question

This topic has 13 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 4 months ago by Iain Hastings.

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April 7, 2005 at 11:49 pm #38958

Shemroy
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Can some one help me?
email me the answer if you know, [email protected]

A sales person sells, on average 12PC system per week. Use the Possion distrbution to estimate the probability that during a given week the person will sell.
b) 12 systems

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April 7, 2005 at 11:53 pm #117402

Shemroy
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for question b) I meant at least 12 systems
question a) is exactly 12 systems, but I know the answer for that.

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April 8, 2005 at 12:15 am #117403

Mikel
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a. 0.114367916
b.

0.575965249

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April 8, 2005 at 12:31 am #117405

Shemroy
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Thank you, but how did you find that out?????

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April 8, 2005 at 5:00 am #117410

Mikel
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How did you know the answer to exactly 12?

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April 8, 2005 at 5:35 am #117411

Mikel
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0
6.14421E-06
6.14421E-06

1
7.98748E-05
7.37305E-05

2
0.000522258
0.000442383

3
0.002291791
0.001769533

4
0.007600391
0.005308599

5
0.020341029
0.012740639

6
0.045822307
0.025481277

7
0.089504497
0.04368219

8
0.155027782
0.065523285

9
0.242392162
0.08736438

10
0.347229418
0.104837256

11
0.461597333
0.114367916

12
0.575965249
0.114367916

13
0.681535632
0.105570384

14
0.772024532
0.0904889

15
0.844415652
0.07239112

16
0.898708993
0.05429334

17
0.937033703
0.038324711

18
0.96258351
0.025549807

19
0.978720231
0.01613672

20
0.988402263
0.009682032

21
0.993934853
0.00553259

22
0.996952629
0.003017776

23
0.998527121
0.001574492

24
0.999314367
0.000787246

25
0.999692245
0.000377878

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April 8, 2005 at 9:11 am #117414

VP
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Answer for b) is it 0.57 or 0.538?

vp

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April 8, 2005 at 9:57 am #117415

Marc Thys
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Stan
Shouldn’t b) be 0.424, ie 1-0.576 ?

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April 8, 2005 at 10:13 am #117416

Joseph Banerjee
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The formulae for getting the probaility for poisson distribution .The distribution function for the Poisson distribution is f(x) = exp(-1*lambda) lambda^x / x!

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April 8, 2005 at 11:31 am #117418

Mikel
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You are right – I need to learn to read the question.

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April 8, 2005 at 11:33 am #117419

Mikel
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Actually no. VP is right, it’s 1 – p(11 or less)

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April 8, 2005 at 12:34 pm #117425

Ken Feldman
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Too late, I think the due date for him to turn in his homework has passed.

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April 8, 2005 at 12:51 pm #117427

Hemanth
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Very simple! For a Poisson Distribution, the probability of an event occuring (say x) is
e minus lambda * Lambda power n divided by factorial n
In this question, the probability of getting an average sale of more than 12 is 1 – prob of getting a sale = 0,1,2,3,4,….. 12
Find P(0), P(1), P(2) ……. P(12) from the above formula and add them together. You would get a value of: 0.5759
Now the prob of x>12 is 1 – P(x<=12) = 1-0.5759 = 0.4240

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April 8, 2005 at 1:14 pm #117429

Iain Hastings
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Except that the question is “at least 12 systems”. So it is P(x<=11)
So it is as previously posted (after Stan re-read the question).
ie 1-0.4616 = 0.538

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