# Poisson Question

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Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
• Author
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• #38958

Shemroy
Member

Can some one help me?
email me the answer if you know, [email protected]

A sales person sells, on average 12PC system per week. Use the Possion distrbution to estimate the probability that during a given week the person will sell.
b) 12 systems

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#117402

Shemroy
Member

for question b) I meant at least 12 systems
question a) is exactly 12 systems, but I know the answer for that.

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#117403

Mikel
Member

a. 0.114367916
b.

0.575965249

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#117405

Shemroy
Member

Thank you, but how did you find that out?????

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#117410

Mikel
Member

How did you know the answer to exactly 12?

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#117411

Mikel
Member

0
6.14421E-06
6.14421E-06

1
7.98748E-05
7.37305E-05

2
0.000522258
0.000442383

3
0.002291791
0.001769533

4
0.007600391
0.005308599

5
0.020341029
0.012740639

6
0.045822307
0.025481277

7
0.089504497
0.04368219

8
0.155027782
0.065523285

9
0.242392162
0.08736438

10
0.347229418
0.104837256

11
0.461597333
0.114367916

12
0.575965249
0.114367916

13
0.681535632
0.105570384

14
0.772024532
0.0904889

15
0.844415652
0.07239112

16
0.898708993
0.05429334

17
0.937033703
0.038324711

18
0.96258351
0.025549807

19
0.978720231
0.01613672

20
0.988402263
0.009682032

21
0.993934853
0.00553259

22
0.996952629
0.003017776

23
0.998527121
0.001574492

24
0.999314367
0.000787246

25
0.999692245
0.000377878

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#117414

VP
Member

Answer for b) is it 0.57 or 0.538?

vp

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#117415

Marc Thys
Participant

Stan
Shouldn’t b) be 0.424, ie 1-0.576 ?

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#117416

Joseph Banerjee
Participant

The formulae for getting the probaility for poisson distribution .The distribution function for the Poisson distribution is f(x) = exp(-1*lambda) lambda^x / x!

0
#117418

Mikel
Member

You are right – I need to learn to read the question.

0
#117419

Mikel
Member

Actually no. VP is right, it’s 1 – p(11 or less)

0
#117425

Ken Feldman
Participant

Too late, I think the due date for him to turn in his homework has passed.

0
#117427

Hemanth
Participant

Very simple! For a Poisson Distribution, the probability of an event occuring (say x) is
e minus lambda * Lambda power n divided by factorial n
In this question, the probability of getting an average sale of more than 12 is 1 – prob of getting a sale = 0,1,2,3,4,….. 12
Find P(0), P(1), P(2) ……. P(12) from the above formula and add them together. You would get a value of:  0.5759
Now the prob of x>12 is 1 – P(x<=12) = 1-0.5759 = 0.4240

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#117429

Iain Hastings
Participant

Except that the question is “at least 12 systems”. So it is P(x<=11)
So it is as previously posted (after Stan re-read the question).
ie 1-0.4616 = 0.538

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