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Poisson Question

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  • #38958

    Shemroy
    Member

    Can some one help me?
    email me the answer if you know, [email protected]
     
    A sales person sells, on average 12PC system per week. Use the Possion distrbution to estimate the probability that during a given week the person will sell.
    b) 12 systems

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    #117402

    Shemroy
    Member

    for question b) I meant at least 12 systems
    question a) is exactly 12 systems, but I know the answer for that.

    0
    #117403

    Mikel
    Member

    a. 0.114367916
    b.

    0.575965249

    0
    #117405

    Shemroy
    Member

    Thank you, but how did you find that out?????

    0
    #117410

    Mikel
    Member

    How did you know the answer to exactly 12?
     

    0
    #117411

    Mikel
    Member

    0
    6.14421E-06
    6.14421E-06

    1
    7.98748E-05
    7.37305E-05

    2
    0.000522258
    0.000442383

    3
    0.002291791
    0.001769533

    4
    0.007600391
    0.005308599

    5
    0.020341029
    0.012740639

    6
    0.045822307
    0.025481277

    7
    0.089504497
    0.04368219

    8
    0.155027782
    0.065523285

    9
    0.242392162
    0.08736438

    10
    0.347229418
    0.104837256

    11
    0.461597333
    0.114367916

    12
    0.575965249
    0.114367916

    13
    0.681535632
    0.105570384

    14
    0.772024532
    0.0904889

    15
    0.844415652
    0.07239112

    16
    0.898708993
    0.05429334

    17
    0.937033703
    0.038324711

    18
    0.96258351
    0.025549807

    19
    0.978720231
    0.01613672

    20
    0.988402263
    0.009682032

    21
    0.993934853
    0.00553259

    22
    0.996952629
    0.003017776

    23
    0.998527121
    0.001574492

    24
    0.999314367
    0.000787246

    25
    0.999692245
    0.000377878

    0
    #117414

    VP
    Member

    Answer for b) is it 0.57 or 0.538?
     
    vp

    0
    #117415

    Marc Thys
    Participant

    Stan
    Shouldn’t b) be 0.424, ie 1-0.576 ?

    0
    #117416

    Joseph Banerjee
    Participant

    The formulae for getting the probaility for poisson distribution .The distribution function for the Poisson distribution is f(x) = exp(-1*lambda) lambda^x / x!

    0
    #117418

    Mikel
    Member

    You are right – I need to learn to read the question.

    0
    #117419

    Mikel
    Member

    Actually no. VP is right, it’s 1 – p(11 or less)

    0
    #117425

    Ken Feldman
    Participant

    Too late, I think the due date for him to turn in his homework has passed.

    0
    #117427

    Hemanth
    Participant

    Very simple! For a Poisson Distribution, the probability of an event occuring (say x) is
    e minus lambda * Lambda power n divided by factorial n
    In this question, the probability of getting an average sale of more than 12 is 1 – prob of getting a sale = 0,1,2,3,4,….. 12
    Find P(0), P(1), P(2) ……. P(12) from the above formula and add them together. You would get a value of:  0.5759
    Now the prob of x>12 is 1 – P(x<=12) = 1-0.5759 = 0.4240
     

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    #117429

    Iain Hastings
    Participant

    Except that the question is “at least 12 systems”. So it is P(x<=11)
    So it is as previously posted (after Stan re-read the question).
    ie 1-0.4616 = 0.538

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