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Probability Question

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  • #44245

    Swaggerty
    Participant

    Can you please confirm if i’m looking at this problem in a correct manner?
    I have 3 separate processes making products, each process has one head assigned to it.  Each process is making similar but different products at different cycle times.
    Process1 has a cycle time of 600 seconds but only needs operator intervention for 30 of those 600 seconds…lets call that a 30 second event
    Process2 has ct of 480 seconds and an operator required event for 25s
    Process3 has a ct of 420s and a 22s event.
    Am i correct in saying that the probabliity of all 3 events happening at the same time is 0.05*0.052*0.052….=1 in 10k chance
    similarly the chance of 2 events happening at the same time is 1 in 500.
     
    Let me know if i am correct.  If so, do you agree that this could all be handled by one person, as the 3 processes are very close to each other.  The other 2 heads could be deployed else where, as we are recruiting at the moment

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    #141476

    almasi
    Participant

    dear george
    u mean for checking the process ,an operator should spend e.g 30 secaonds?

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    #141477

    Swaggerty
    Participant

    Kind off, what i nean is that out of the 600second run time, they need to have their hands on the equipment for one 30 second period, not inspecting but manual intervention in the process.  This 30 seconds is allin one block so sequence of events would be 570s run, 30s run on manual, 570s run, 30s run on manual…..

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    #141478

    Ang
    Participant

    Dear Goerge, you might want to look at the difference between all events ‘happening’ = ‘starting’ at the same time , of which your calc is correct, and the probability of overlap of events. This probability is much higher.

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