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  • May 6, 2005 at 3:19 pm #39255

    Jose
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Participant

    I have a take home test due in about 45 minutes and i need to know the answer to this problem.
    Fifty-five percent of registered voters in a congressional district are registered Democrats. The Republican candidate takes a poll to assess his chances in a two-candidate race. He polls 1200 potential voters and finds that 621 plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. Does the Republican candidate have a chance to win? Use (sigma)= 0.05
    Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks so much.

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    May 6, 2005 at 3:33 pm #119080

    Schuette
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Participant

    No – hope this helps.

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    May 6, 2005 at 3:51 pm #119082

    Jose
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Participant

    I need some math behind it..

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    May 6, 2005 at 3:58 pm #119083

    Mikel
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Member

    Depending on what confidence you want – there is about a 25 margin of error, so yes he could win.

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    May 6, 2005 at 3:59 pm #119084

    Mikel
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Member

    Make that 2%.

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    May 6, 2005 at 4:05 pm #119088

    DavidCQE
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Participant

    Using the formula:  phat – z (1-alpha/2) sqrt(phat*qhat/n)
    The 95% lower CI for the proportion voting Democrat is 48.9 % so yes the Republican has a chance to win.

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    May 6, 2005 at 4:37 pm #119090

    Ken Feldman
    ★ 10 Years ★
    Participant

    The Republican can only win if the dumb Democrat is from Mass.  Then it is a shoe-in regardless of the polls.

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