Six Sigma and Monte Carlo Simulation

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    Tim Howard

    Is anyone using Monte Carlo Simulation in their six sigma efforts?


    Jeff Ayland

    Hi Tim,
    Yep, when you want to see various “build scenarios” for example. Using “Crystal Ball” you can model assemblies of parts from there underlying distributions. The method assumes “random assemblies”. I have done this quite a few times and am always surprised to see the “mathematical simulation” model the “truth”. (IE the actual data generated from the assembly over time, nearly always fits your original model) The nice thing about it is you can “experiment” with specifications and in turn lead on to process parameters that you need to have, such as a particular X bar or sigma. With Crystal ball you can move the pointer around, which is the confidence interval, and look at “regions” where you dont want to be in the design. Great tool for turning “traditional” worst case engineering tolerancing on its head. I am mostly applying it on manufacturing scenarios, but just use your imagination for others !!




    Tom Avery

    I’ve also used crystal ball and found it to be a terrific add-on program to microsoft excel. Once you ge the hang of it, it is easy to use, and very powerful — and it’s hard to think that a monte carlo simulation is easy!


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