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The Statman Challenge

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  • #34152

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Statman:I just read through the recent posts concerning the1.5 sigma shift. I found the exchange quite interesting. However, it did bring to mind an idea … so I though I would get some input from you (and anyone else that has interest). This forum is not a good platform from which to hold such a technical debate, so why don’t we have a PUBLIC DEBATE. I would be willing (if you are) to approach Dr. Harry to create a platform for open debate concerning the shift factor and some other things you have contention with (like PPM vs DPMO and so on). I can easily arrange a sponsored symposium this spring at Arizona State University (College of Engineering and Applied Sciences). Although I have not talked with Dr. Harry about this idea, I feel quite confident he would be more than willing to “rise to the challenge.” I will put together a group of recognized third party (unbiased) subject-matter-experts to serve as debate judges. These judges will be fully recognized in their respective fields (i.e., statistics, mathematics, quality, and six sigma). The questions will be outlined in advance so the debaters can prepare their cases and supporting arguments. Each presenter will be given ample time to present their respective case for each of the core questions and then the judges will render a final opinion and presentation rating. The results of the formal debate (including the judge’s opinions) will be published and posted for all to read. The sponsorship will cover the cost of travel, lodging, and meals (and perhaps a presenter stipend). In addition, time will be dedicated for attendees to ask questions and seek further clarification. Perhaps its time to “put your egos on hold and your facts to the test.” This could be a really great symposium if you are up to it. I await your response.Respectfully submitted for your consideration,Reigle Stewart.

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    #93763

    Statman
    Member

    Hi Reigle,
    I very much welcome the opportunity to have direct dialogue with Dr. Harry about these “Mysteries of Six Sigma”  in a public forum.  The only condition is that the objective is to develop a consciences on practical application for practicioners.  I think this is your objective as well. 
    As you know from our previous discussions, my concern is in the misapplication of statisical concepts.  I have acknowledge in almost every post that under limited and appropriate conditions the 1.5 shift or PPM vs DPMO, have a value add application.  The concern is in universal applications without concideration of assumptions or consequences.
    Just let me know the details and I will make time to attend.
    Regards,
    Statman

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    #93766

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Statman:Hey, this is simply fantastic. I just spoke to Dr.
    Harry about this idea and he said “great idea …
    such a forum will add significant value to all that
    are involved.” I will take the action to put some
    details together. It may take a little while to get
    this done given that the holidays are upon us. I
    will try to work on it over the holiday, but no
    promises. I agree with you that it should be
    application focused. I will get back to you as
    soon as possible. Perhaps you could formulate
    some guiding questions as I will do the same.
    Respectfully,Reigle Stewart

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    #93770

    Statman
    Member

    Hi Reigle,
    Let me know how to contact you.
    Statman

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    #93772

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Statman:To faciliate centralized communications, I will
    establish a project coordinator (and
    corresponding e-mail address). In this way, we
    avoid a “confounded web of communication.”
    As the details emerge they can be concurrently
    distributed to all that need be involved during
    the planning phase. As soon as I have
    appointed a coordinator, I will send you the
    necessary contact information through this
    website forum.Regards,Reigle Stewart

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    #93774

    Statman
    Member

    Thanks Reigle.

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    #93779

    GAC
    Participant

    I would like a piece of this too. As a person involved in this prior to Dr. Harry joining Motorola and still going strong making practical sense of all the hypothetical ideas out there, I will contribute. And as an old friend of Mikel’s who doesn’t necessarily agree with all his claims, it would add some spice to what could be a real drab afair.
    What do you think?

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    #93783

    Savage
    Participant

    I’d pay BIG bucks just to see this.  I’m a huge fan of Dick Butkis!  Maybe he’d sign my #51 jersey?

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    #93788

    John H.
    Participant

    ReigleAs a frequent reader and occasional contributor to the site, I would be very interested in Dr. Stephen’s Wolfram’s comments and analysis* of Dr. Harry’s book and these topics in general. It is my belief that complex real processes have events that are not necessarily Independent(conditional/chaotic/fractal based) and require sophisticated computer modeling for accurate design margin estimates. Perhaps DR, Wolfram’s insights and suggestions into these areas will benefit all interested readers. His curriculum vitae can be found at:http://www.stephenwolfram.com/about-sw/If you are up to the challenge, you can contact Dr. Wolfram at http://www.stephenwolfram.com/contactinfo/and encourage/invite him to this Symposium or obtain his comments and analysis on these topics.* Note “Dr. Wolfram is the discover of Mathematica and he is considered to be one of the most original Scientists in the World”PS: I am not associated with Wolfram Research and do not sell Mathematica softwareJohn H.

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    #93792

    comoss
    Participant

    Thanks Reigle,
    At last somebody came up with a challenge. But I really DOUBT it would happen.
    Are you sure or it is just another farce in this forum (sponsors, stipend, experts, etc., etc.)?
    Let the entire six sigma community know about this. The debate results published on this site will give the world immense benefits. I only hope to Statman will be able to make it there. Please give some time to him to prepare. He could be the next “Dr. Harry” with new invention called say “Statman Z – Methodology”. I see him already turning soft in the posts here in response to your challenge.
    Good luck Statman! Take up the challenge ! We will recall all the books sold with these pages and replace those with newly pasted ones. Provided you prove your point there in Arizona!! The earlier the better, or this hot debate will become so cool that people will loose interest in it.

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    #93793

    Statman Too
    Member

    John H.I would agree that Dr. Wolfram’s analysis would be very
    enlightening. Have you read Dr. Harry’s analysis on the
    use of Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry in his new
    book? I have. Please understand that I am not promoting
    the book. I only see it as a new contribution of highly
    original substance and content and; therefore, deserving
    of our consideration and discussion. I must admit that this
    section of the book (the last section) was pretty heady
    reading and took a lot of intense concentration, but from
    what I can gleam, it is a very unique and novel approach.
    Obviously, his approach would be rather computer
    intensive in practice, but nonetheless it does have a lot of
    sex appeal and offers a unique opportunity for
    “embedded” simulations (perhaps well suited for circuit
    design and CAD systems). Since you suggest Dr.
    Wolfram, then I would assume you have some knowledge
    on the subject (in order to comprehend his hyper-
    mathematical approaches). It would be really nice if you
    could submit your technical analysis on Dr. Harry’s use of
    complexity theory (chaos) to emulate sophisticated
    processes. Also, his use of “rotated” fractal geometry to
    project random-generated time-domain data that exhibits
    bounded auto-correlated patterns is most interesting,
    especially his use of the resultants to establish robust
    product and process tolerances. So far, no one on this
    site has addressed this section of his new book. I look
    forward to your informative synopsis on the subject since
    you make a strong point of being an occasional
    contributor. To my knowledge, no one else in the field of
    quality engineering has looked at this approach to robust
    tolerance design.Statman Too

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    #93796

    DaveG
    Participant

    Please email me the title / link for Dr. Harry’s book.
    I like esoteric mathematical concepts as much as the next guy, but who will actually use them?  Other end of the spectrum:  I commented yesterday that a colleague had a SS project to implement compliance to an SOP.

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    #93798

    Carl
    Participant
    #93803

    Mikel
    Member

    Reigle,
    You really do need to decide if you are Reigle or Statman Too. I personally would stick with Guess Who.
    And yes, you are to promoting Dr. Harry – as shamelessly as ever.
    I would like to see a fairly moderated debate between Mikel and any of the guys who have carried him since he started this in 1994. If we had knowledgeable listeners they would see him for the fool he is.

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    #93805

    Statman
    Member

    Reigle,
     
    First of all, the topic of chaos theory and Tolerancing has been quite extensively written about.  Just do a Google search on the topic.  What Harry has written is not particularly unique or novel.
     
    Secondly, Don Wheeler wrote a paper in 1995 describing process behavior and the application of chaos theory.  What Wheeler shows is that Shewhart control chart theory is as robust for process modeling as the application of Chaos theory even when acknowledging the existence of chaotic behavior.  A couple nice things about this paper, Don is a much better writer than Dr. Harry so the concept of chaos and process variation are described in a very straightforward manner and, the paper is a free download.
     
    http://www.spcpress.com/ink_pdfs/Wh%20Chaos%20Theory.pdf
     
    Third, one can’t help but to notice the irony that in the same book that Harry claims that the design engineer will only accept a “rule of thumb” linear shift of the mean for taking into account the presence of sampling error, he also expects the computational power and acceptance of solving sets of differential equations for Tolerancing.
     
    Statman

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    #93813

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Statman:
     
    1)  I do believe you misdirected this particular thread conversation to me.  Judging by the thread you are concerned with, you should be having this conversation with Statman Too.
     
    2) But you do raise an interesting question.  It sounds like the issue of “Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry as applied to Robust Engineering Tolerancing” should be one of the debate topics, given that you feel Dr. Harry has not provided anything “new” on this topic.  I do look forward to your technical position related to this subject at the conference.  I will ensure that someone from this field is on the panel of judges.
     
    3) If you (or anyone else) have other such topics or issues that could make for “good technical debate” related to the field of Six Sigma, please inform me as soon as possible.
     
    4) It has been suggested that the specific questions concerning the debate entitled “Contemporary Engineering and Statistical Issues Related to the Field of Six Sigma” should be formulated by the independent panel of judges and withheld until the day of debate.  The topics will be published in advance, but not the questions.  Dr. Harry is OK with this, what is your preference?
     
    Regards,
     
    Reigle Stewart

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    #93815

    Savage
    Participant

    Reigle,
    You must think we’re all idiots.  Just admit you’ve been responding under Statman Too, Guess Who, Old Fat Bald Guy, etc, etc.
    Or will you AND Statman Too be at the debate?

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    #93817

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Matt:
    Are you really Matt or Statman Too.  I’ll bet you are really “Arnold the Governor” coming on this site looking for ways to use Six Sigma to make California shake less.  Maybe you’re really “Statman For.”  Or perhaps “Statman By.”  OK, I’m busted — I’m really “Statman and Robin”  I just did not want to admit being someone else.  You know, like Dr. Harry, he is really the incarnate of Elvis (Shh … don’t tell anyone I told you so).
    Have a Safe Holiday and Merry X-Mas to All
     
    Reigle Stewart
    Old-Bald-Fat-Guy-Statman-Too-Statman-X-Green Hornet.
    PS: Actually I am a recovery Bipolar-Schit’zo-Manic-Depressive looking for a cheap date, cheap beer, and cheap cars — at least that is what my wife and close friends say.  No really, Its my life dream to be Statman-Matt.  Ho Ho Ho and lots of cheer and blessings to everyone.

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    #93818

    Savage
    Participant

    You forgot GuessWho???

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    #93819

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Matt:Wow, busted again. You are a real super sleuth figuring
    out Who’s Who. I’m so embarrased … this is so
    humiliating … even my wife got used to calling me Guess
    Who. Just the other day, my dentist called the house and
    asked for Statman. My daughter answered the phone
    “Annonymous,” but to no avail, “OBFG” said to call back.
    Well, when the dust settled, my tooth quit hurting, my
    daughter went shopping, and when my wife came in, she
    said: “Guess What.” When I replied “Don’t Know” she
    said: “Big Surprise.” Upon hearing that, I instantly knew
    that Matt had the whole sham figured out. So, I ran to my
    computer, logged on to iSixSigma.com and posted a
    memo under the pen-name “Reigle Stewart.” So I have to
    confess, Reigle Stewart don’t really exist. He is really a
    creation of Guess Who. My true name is Herr Professor
    Roger Ramjet III (Esq.). The world must not discover this
    fact because so much is at stake.Again, Merry Christmas and Happy New YearThe Reigle-Beagle ManPS: Next time, can I use the name “Richard Nixon.” I like
    that name much better than Statman Too or Guess Who.
    Besides, I always wanted to make a PEACE sign getting
    off a plane.

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    #93820

    Savage
    Participant

    Ok – Reigle, truce.

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    #93821

    John H.
    Participant

    Statman Too or Reigle
    Thanks for the analysis invitation but your response sounds like a sales promotion for Dr. Harry’s book and only a fool would do this task (sales promotion) free of charge. In any case, I am still interested in a topic review by Dr. Wolfram.
    Happy Holidays & Merry Xmas
    -John H.

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    #93822

    comoss
    Participant

    Just do it Reigle. Don’t just use this site for promoting Dr. Harry’s inventions. Our entire team will beleive in what tyou challenged and posted only when such debate is held and results declared.
    I still wonder whether you are Dr. Harry himself or “closest” assistance. Netiher Statman Too nor Guess Who. How much did he pay you so that all his books are not recalled or he won’t incur huge loss for those in stock piled at Cross Words and other book stores.
    Please stop this and let us know the dates of “Debate”. I would call it “Six Sigma War day” or Six Sigma Boxing Day”. If Dr. Harry can come out with excellent punches, be sure he has future with Six Sigma promotion for another 20 – 25 years at least.
    Dates Please! Dates Please! Stop rest garbage postings!

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    #93829

    muhannad al nabulsi
    Participant

    Please Kindly stop using only “Capital”letters in your writings,as it is confusing and difficult to read,thank you and Happy NEW YEAR,   Muhannad 

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    #93845

    Mikel
    Member

    Reigle (aka Statman Too, Guess Who, and Tricky Dick Nixon),
    I guess there is no fool like a bald, fat, wanna be cowboy, wanna be loved by Dr. Harry kind of fool.
    Maybe you can get an exorcism as a late Christmas present.

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    #93968

    Rocky
    Member

    Statman,
    Are you still in vacation/holiday ?? We haven’t hear anything from you for quite sometimes now. We are wondering when will you surface… we are eager to know update for this debate..
     
    Reigle,Statman Too, Dixon…etc…
    IS there a predetermined date already for this debate?? Please update us for development….this is turning cold………..
     
    Rocky

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    #93990

    hestatis
    Participant

    I am sure Statman and Reigle are having a long vacation. BTW, going back to all the threads, it is clear that Reigle is implusive and provoked Statman to challenge, otherwise, initially we found Statman to be a descent man with due respect to Dr. Harry in his postings at least.
    It is really cold now and the hot debate is highly unlikely to happen I guess. Maybe Statman is busy launching his new book “Six Sigma – The Statman’s Way” or “Misleading Dr. to Leading Statistician”.
    Let get back and focus of real quality issues that can be solved using guidelines and directions given in the Six Sigma concept and methodology.
     

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    #94012

    Reigle Stewart
    Participant

    Rocky:As a progress check point, you should be aware
    that I am working through Arizona State
    University to get the debate set up. There is a
    strong possibility that we will be able to attach
    the debate to the quality conference currently
    scheduled during Feb 04 in Scottsdale Arizona.
    As information becomes availible, I will post it
    on this site. Please understand this is not a
    trivial undertaking and much coordination must
    be done among several organizations (they too
    must agree to the details; such as format, etc.).
    As you well know, such things are not
    accomplished over-night. So I kindly ask your
    patience as I continue forward with this effort.
    Everyone wants a “quality event,” so details
    must be identified and resolved.Thank youReigle Stewart

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