# trend analysis

Six Sigma – iSixSigma Forums Old Forums General trend analysis

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• #42137

rolando m sotelo
Member

Can somebody give me a brief lecture on “trend” analysis in call leads.  Thanks.

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#132853

Bob J
Participant

Are they going up or going down to a significant degree over time….
Best Regards,
Bob J

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#132856

rolando sotelo
Member

There was no trend though.  However, the data showed leads come from VA 40%  TX  20% CA 11% Other States rest of the pie.  Top accepter of TPV is CA.  What can you conclude?

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#132859

Bob J
Participant

Rolando,
Not much from what you have shared…
What you are describing is a categorization of a static set of data…  Trend analysis will help you determine how this data significantly changes over time…
Also, not sure what TPV is….
What are you trying to improve?
Best Regards,
Bob J

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#132860

rolando sotelo
Member

Thanks so much for the interest.  It’s like this.  We are getting leads for a telemarketing campaign.  Leads come from all the States and per our one month data, we get 40% of the leads from VA, 20% from TX, 12% from IN, and 11% from CA.  Thes rest came from the remaining States (negligible amount).
The successful sales come from Ca although they are not the top source of leads.  Can we conclude anything from that?
Thanks.

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#132862

Bob J
Participant

Rolando,
Ahhhh, I see…..  That helps….
If I understand correctly, you are trying to improve the number of leads that result in successful sales….
Given that, the first question you need to ask yourself is whether the sample (one month) is large enough and truely representative…  Is this a new telemarketing campaign or an ongoing effort?
Assuming the sample is ok then the next hurdle is to determine whether the results for California are statistically significant…  I’d use a chi squared contingency table to test this…
Assuming the results from California are statistically significant, the next challenge will be to discover what factors make California leads different.  The key thing here will be to look at how the leads are initially identified and what demographics are available to you for the next level of analysis…  The path forward will be to learn what factors result in the better results in California and use that information to improve the yield for the rest of the country…
Hope this helps…
Best Regards,
Bob J

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#132863

rolando sotelo
Member

Thast helps, thanks so much…

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#132871

xu
Participant

Maybe you have data from different populations in each state (no pun intended) and the trends are “masked” in the aggregate data. Have you tried looking at each state separately?
There may be a latent “lag time” issue that is “shifting” data to different time periods. This also masks trends. There are significant differences in how fast residents of different states respond. There may be different “frequencies” for converting leads into sales.
Then there is the issue of different sales reps/modes of contact Try bursting your data by rep or mode of contact. Different reps have significant differences in their willingness and ability to convert leads to sales.
This also gives you the ability to compare states and reps/modes. You may see important timing differences as the data move.
Do you contact different types of companies? Size of companies? Smaller companies move faster than alrge companies.

JIT/Lean companies move faster than those that carry inventory.

Are there any other variables involved? Day? Time of day? Source of lead?

Hope this helps.

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#132895

Bob J
Participant

Rolando,
You are certainly welcome….;- )
Have a great day and good luck on the project!
Bob J

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#132901

JJ in NJ
Participant

I suggest analyzing your data via a one-way ANOVA.

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